Research Summary: The Competitive Authoritarian Playbook -- America's Place in a Global Pattern

Date: 2026-02-14 Format: Video Essay (30-60 minutes) Sources gathered: 20

Topic

The United States is following a recognizable path from competitive democracy to competitive authoritarianism -- a system where elections still happen and opposition is technically legal, but the playing field is so tilted that genuine competition becomes nearly impossible. Political scientists who study democratic collapse have a precise term for what is happening, and understanding the playbook reveals that the apparent chaos is not chaos at all: it is a recognizable sequence of moves with a well-documented destination.

Thesis Direction

The term "competitive authoritarianism," coined by Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way in 2002, describes a hybrid regime where meaningful democratic institutions coexist with serious incumbent abuse, yielding electoral competition that is real but unfair. Levitsky himself -- along with Way and Ziblatt -- has now explicitly argued in Foreign Affairs (January/February 2026) that the United States has entered this category, alongside Hungary under Orban, Turkey under Erdogan, and Venezuela under Chavez. The essay maps the specific playbook moves (media capture, judicial intimidation, civil service politicization, electoral manipulation, targeting of vulnerable populations) and shows how each has been executed in other countries and is now being executed in the United States -- often faster than in comparable cases.

Deep research confirmed and strengthened this thesis. The evidence base is robust: the Century Foundation's Democracy Meter documents a 28% decline in democratic quality in a single year (79 to 57 out of 100). Freedom House ranks the US at 57th in press freedom. The Washington Post documented the Trump administration defying court orders in one-third of 165 lawsuits. Levitsky himself has stated: "We are no longer living in a democratic regime."

However, the research also uncovered a critical nuance: the political science literature on democratic recovery is more hopeful than the democratic erosion data alone would suggest. V-Dem Institute data shows 73% of autocratization episodes in the last 30 years have become "U-Turns" back to democracy. Chenoweth's 3.5% rule and the scale of the 50501 movement (7 million at the October 2025 protests) suggest the conditions for democratic recovery may exist. This is essential for the essay's arc -- it must not end in doom.

Evidence Map

The sources organize into six clusters:

Cluster 1: The Academic Framework (Sources 01-03)

The definitional and theoretical foundation. Levitsky/Way's original 2002 framework, their 2025 Ash Center paper applying it to the US, and the 2026 Foreign Affairs article declaring the US a competitive authoritarian regime. These provide the intellectual backbone.

Cluster 2: The Scorecard (Sources 04-06)

Quantitative measurement of democratic decline. The Century Foundation Democracy Meter (79 to 57), Freedom House data, and RSF press freedom rankings. These give the thesis empirical grounding with specific numbers.

Cluster 3: The Playbook in Practice -- International Case Studies (Sources 07-09)

Hungary under Orban, Turkey under Erdogan, and Venezuela under Chavez/Maduro. Each demonstrates the competitive authoritarian playbook in sequence, with specific dates and mechanisms that can be mapped onto US developments.

Cluster 4: The Playbook in America (Sources 10-15)

The specific moves being executed in the US: court order defiance and legalistic noncompliance (Sources 10-11), civil service politicization via Schedule F and DOGE (Source 12), media capture and press freedom attacks (Source 13), electoral manipulation targeting 2026 (Source 14), and the 2025-2026 SCOTUS docket (Source 15).

Cluster 5: The Historical Parallel (Source 16)

The Reconstruction/Redemption/Jim Crow era as an American precedent for competitive authoritarianism -- arguing that the US has done this before to itself. This is the "we're not exceptional" thread.

Cluster 6: Resilience and Recovery (Sources 17-20)

The counterweight to the erosion narrative. Chenoweth's civil resistance data and the 3.5% rule (Source 17), the 50501 movement and mass protest data (Source 18), state resistance and federalism as democratic defense (Source 19), and V-Dem data on democratic U-Turns (Source 20).

Strongest Evidence For

Levitsky's explicit classification: The co-creator of the competitive authoritarianism framework has explicitly stated the US now fits the category, publishing in Foreign Affairs with co-authors Way and Ziblatt that the US "should be grouped with regimes like those erected by Chavez in Venezuela, Erdogan in Turkey, Orban in Hungary."
The Democracy Meter collapse: A 28% decline in democratic quality in a single year (79 to 57 out of 100), across 23 subquestions evaluating institutions, rights, and elections. Elections were the only category to hold steady -- and only because they're administered by states, not the federal government.
Court order defiance at scale: The Washington Post documented defiance in 57 of 165 lawsuits -- one in three. A Minnesota judge documented 96 ICE violations of court orders in a single month. 81% of Americans say the administration must follow court rulings.
The playbook matches: Media capture (AP barred from White House, 170 journalist assaults, US dropped to 57th in press freedom), civil service politicization (50,000 workers reclassified under Schedule F, 75,000 accepted "Fork in the Road"), judicial manipulation (SCOTUS sided with administration in 84% of shadow docket cases), electoral manipulation (DOJ suing 24 states over voter rolls, CISA election security staff gutted).
Speed exceeds comparisons: Levitsky and Way noted the US authoritarian turn was "faster and far-reaching than those that occurred in the first year of these other regimes" -- including Hungary and Turkey.

Strongest Evidence Against

Democratic U-Turn data is encouraging: V-Dem data shows 73% of autocratization episodes in the last 30 years have been reversed, and 90% of U-Turns lead to restored or improved democracy. The US may be entering a temporary phase, not a permanent one.
Institutional density argument (Larry Diamond): Liberal democracy has survived in wealthy capitalist economies because of the "density and vigor" of independent organizations, media, think tanks, universities, and businesses that form a thick layer of autonomous capacity to resist tyranny. The US has more of this institutional infrastructure than Hungary or Turkey did.
The 2026 midterm window: Trump's approval is at 36-39%, Democrats lead the generic ballot by 3-14 points depending on the poll, 30 House Republicans are retiring (highest in modern history), and Democrats have roughly 69% odds of winning the House. Competitive authoritarianism usually requires more than one term to consolidate -- and the consolidation window may be closing.
Mass mobilization has exceeded thresholds: The 50501 movement mobilized approximately 7 million people on October 18, 2025 -- roughly 2.1% of the population in a single day. Chenoweth's research suggests sustained engagement at 3.5% is sufficient to force change.
State-level resistance: 15 Democratic trifectas, 22 AGs filing lawsuits, states passing their own civil rights laws (Illinois Bivens Act), California allocating $25M for legal challenges. Decentralized governance makes full authoritarian consolidation structurally harder than in unitary states like Hungary.

Research Gaps

Levitsky/Way 2025 Ash Center paper: The full PDF could not be extracted due to encoding. The paper likely contains the most detailed playbook mapping. Would benefit from manual retrieval and review.
Foreign Affairs January 2026 article full text: Paywalled. The full argument from Levitsky/Way/Ziblatt with detailed comparisons would significantly strengthen the evidence base. Key quotes were found in secondary sources.
Specific V-Dem scoring for the US: V-Dem's specific electoral democracy and liberal democracy index scores for the US in 2025-2026 would add to the quantitative evidence.
Detailed 50501 movement organizational analysis: The Wikipedia articles were inaccessible. More detailed data on sustained participation rates (not just peak events) would help assess whether the 3.5% threshold is being met in a sustained way.
Republican internal dissent data: How many Republican members of Congress have publicly criticized specific authoritarian moves? This would help assess the "elite defection" factor that political science identifies as critical for democratic recovery.

Recommended Approach

Structure the essay as a journey through the playbook. The most powerful framing is to lay out the competitive authoritarianism playbook as a sequence of moves -- derived from the international case studies -- and then show the audience that each move has already been executed or is in progress in the United States. This creates the "pattern recognition" effect that is the show's signature.

Lead with the academic framework, not the outrage. The essay's power comes from the precision of the diagnosis, not from emotional escalation. Start by teaching the audience what competitive authoritarianism is -- the Levitsky/Way definition -- and then show them the pattern. The emotion will build naturally as the parallels accumulate.

Use Hungary as the primary case study. Orban's Hungary is the closest parallel to the US: a constitutional democracy with Western institutions that was eroded from within through legal means. Turkey and Venezuela are useful secondary cases, but Hungary is the one where the audience will most clearly see the mirror.

The Reconstruction/Redemption parallel is the essay's most original contribution. Most commentators are comparing the US to Hungary and Turkey. The argument that the US has already done this to itself -- during Reconstruction/Redemption -- is a framework that reframes the entire conversation. It eliminates the "it can't happen here" instinct by showing it already did.

The steelman must be genuinely strong. The best counterargument is the combination of institutional density (Diamond), democratic U-Turn data (V-Dem), mass mobilization scale (50501/Chenoweth), and the 2026 midterm window. Present this not as wishful thinking but as evidence-based grounds for conditional hope.

End with agency, not doom. The political science is clear: civil resistance works, U-Turns happen, and the conditions for democratic recovery exist in the US. But they require active defense, not passive assumption. The essay should end with earned hope -- the data says this is reversible, but only if people choose to reverse it.

Source Inventory

source-01-levitsky-way-competitive-authoritarianism-framework.md -- Original 2002 academic framework defining competitive authoritarianism
source-02-levitsky-way-path-to-american-authoritarianism.md -- 2025 Ash Center paper applying the framework to the US
source-03-levitsky-way-ziblatt-foreign-affairs-2026.md -- Foreign Affairs Jan/Feb 2026 article declaring US competitive authoritarian
source-04-century-foundation-democracy-meter.md -- Democracy Meter methodology and scoring (79 to 57)
source-05-freedom-house-us-democracy-scores.md -- Freedom House long-term US democracy tracking
source-06-rsf-press-freedom-index-us.md -- Reporters Without Borders press freedom decline data
source-07-hungary-orban-playbook.md -- Hungary's democratic erosion timeline and mechanisms
source-08-turkey-erdogan-playbook.md -- Turkey's democratic backsliding under Erdogan
source-09-venezuela-chavez-maduro-playbook.md -- Venezuela's transition from democracy to authoritarianism
source-10-court-order-defiance-wapo-analysis.md -- WaPo analysis: administration defied 1 in 3 court orders
source-11-legalistic-noncompliance-protect-democracy.md -- Protect Democracy analysis of court conflict strategy
source-12-schedule-f-doge-civil-service.md -- Civil service politicization via Schedule F and DOGE
source-13-media-capture-press-attacks.md -- Documentation of media capture and press freedom attacks
source-14-electoral-manipulation-2026.md -- Brennan Center analysis of threats to 2026 elections
source-15-scotus-2026-docket-shadow-docket.md -- Supreme Court interim docket and shadow docket analysis
source-16-reconstruction-redemption-historical-precedent.md -- Oxford/Blavatnik analysis of Reconstruction as authoritarian precedent
source-17-chenoweth-civil-resistance-recovery-data.md -- Chenoweth's 3.5% rule and democratic recovery research
source-18-50501-movement-protest-data.md -- Mass protest statistics and the 50501 movement
source-19-state-resistance-federalism.md -- State-level democratic defense and federalism as resilience factor
source-20-vdem-democratic-uturns.md -- V-Dem data on autocratization reversals and recovery rates

The Playbook: How Democracies Die on Paper

Source Material