Research Brief

Topic

The Competitive Authoritarian Playbook -- mapping America's position in a global pattern of democratic backsliding

Target Duration

60 minutes (~9,000 words)

Research Summary

The evidence base for this essay is exceptionally strong. The scholars who invented the "competitive authoritarianism" framework -- Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way -- have themselves declared that the United States now fits the category, publishing in Foreign Affairs alongside Daniel Ziblatt (co-author of "How Democracies Die") in January 2026. Multiple independent quantitative indices confirm the diagnosis: the Century Foundation's Democracy Meter documents a 28% decline in democratic quality in a single year, Freedom House shows a 13-year decline of 11 points, the EIU classifies the US as a "flawed democracy," and Bright Line Watch scholars rated US democracy at 54 out of 100 (down from 67 before the election). The international case studies (Hungary, Turkey, Venezuela) provide a well-documented playbook sequence that maps disturbingly well onto US developments. Critically, the research also supports a genuine hope narrative grounded in political science: V-Dem data shows 73% of recent autocratization episodes are reversed, Chenoweth's 3.5% rule provides a concrete threshold, and the 50501 movement has already mobilized approximately 7 million Americans. The counterarguments -- particularly around federalism, institutional density, and the 2026 midterm window -- are substantively strong and must be presented honestly. Poland's recent experience with democratic recovery (messy, incomplete, but real) provides an additional case study for the hope section. The essay has an embarrassment of riches in terms of source material; the challenge will be compression and narrative focus, not evidence gaps.

Core Facts & Current State

Key Data Points

Century Foundation Democracy Meter: US democratic quality dropped from 79/100 in 2024 to 57/100 in 2025 -- a 28% decline in a single year. Elections were the only category to hold steady, attributed to decentralized state administration. (Source)
Freedom House: US score declined from 93/100 in 2006 to 83/100 in 2024 -- 11 points over 13 years. The US now ranks "far behind long-standing democratic nations that had previously been peers." (Source)
EIU Democracy Index: US scored 7.85/10, classified as a "flawed democracy" since 2016 downgrade. Ranked 28th globally. Worst categories: Political Culture (6.25) and Functioning of Government (6.43). (Source)
RSF Press Freedom Index: US ranked 57th out of 180 countries. Classified as "problematic situation." Social indicator fell 28 places. 170 journalist assaults in 2025, 160 by law enforcement. (Source)
Bright Line Watch: Survey of 703 political scientists rated US democracy at 54/100 in September 2025, down from 67 before the 2024 election. Experts project a further decline to 47 by 2027. (Source)
NPR/Bright Line Watch: Survey of 500+ political scientists found "the vast majority think the United States is moving swiftly from liberal democracy toward some form of authoritarianism." February 2025 score dropped from 67 to 55 -- the largest single decline since tracking began in 2017. (Source)
Pew Research: 62% of Americans dissatisfied with how democracy is working (spring 2025). More than 80% believe elected officials don't care what people like them think. (Source)
Trump Approval: 36-37% approval as of February 2026. Net approval at approximately -14 to -26 points depending on poll. Strongly disapprove broke 46% for the first time. (Source)
Generic Ballot: Democrats lead 3-14 points depending on poll. Fox News poll: Democrats 52%, Republicans 46%. Morning Consult weekly: Democrats +3. (Source)
Court Order Defiance: Washington Post analysis found administration defied court orders in 57 of 165 lawsuits -- roughly one in three. Minnesota judge documented 96 ICE court order violations in one month in a single district. (Source)
SCOTUS Shadow Docket: Court sided with Trump administration in 84% of emergency docket cases. When administration was the applicant: 90% success rate. 7 of 25 decisions issued with no written explanation. (Source)
Federal Workforce: 242,000 net reduction in federal workforce (10%) between inauguration and December 2025. 75,000 accepted the "Fork in the Road" resignation offer. 50,000 reclassified under Schedule F. (Source)
ICE Detention Deaths: 31 deaths in custody in 2025 -- an all-time high, nearly tripling the 11 deaths in 2024. 6 deaths in the first 21 days of 2026. Detained population exploded from under 40,000 to over 73,000. 74% have no criminal convictions. (Source)

Key Players & Positions

Steven Levitsky (Harvard): Co-creator of the competitive authoritarianism framework. Has explicitly stated "We are no longer living in a democratic regime." Co-authored the Foreign Affairs Jan/Feb 2026 article declaring the US a competitive authoritarian regime. Notably, he also believes the transition is "reversible -- and I think likely will be reversed."
Lucan Way (University of Toronto): Co-creator of the framework with Levitsky. Co-authored both the 2025 Ash Center paper and 2026 Foreign Affairs article applying their framework to the US. Emphasized US transition speed exceeds comparisons: "faster and far-reaching than those that occurred in the first year of these other regimes."
Daniel Ziblatt (Harvard): Co-author of "How Democracies Die," joined Levitsky/Way for the 2026 Foreign Affairs article. His participation signals convergence of two major schools of democratic erosion scholarship.
Erica Chenoweth (Harvard): Leading researcher on civil resistance and the 3.5% rule. Has documented that nonviolent campaigns are twice as effective as violent ones and 10x more likely to produce democratic transitions. Has been cautious about directly applying her framework to current US, declining to "quantify current US readiness."
Brian Klaas (UCL/Oxford): Author and democracy scholar who has characterized the US as a competitive authoritarian system. Stated the US has "the trappings of democracy, but without a level playing field." (Source)
Larry Diamond (Stanford/Hoover): Makes the "institutional density" counterargument -- the US has more autonomous civil society infrastructure than any previous country that experienced competitive authoritarianism. Acknowledges this capacity "has been badly strained by intense political polarization."
William Galston (Brookings): Distinguishes between the direction of change toward competitive authoritarianism and proximity to it. Argues US federalism "serves as a check on presidential authority" that makes authoritarian moves "slower and more difficult, though not impossible." (Source)
Thomas Carothers (Carnegie Endowment): Co-authored the most detailed comparative analysis of US backsliding versus Hungary, Turkey, India, Poland, and Brazil. Found the US has backsliding with "unusual speed and aggression" but "not yet as institutionalized or repressive as in some of the other prominent cases." (Source)
Human Rights Watch: 2026 World Report identified a "decided shift toward authoritarianism" in the US, citing pervasive attacks on rights across immigration, health, environment, labor, disability, gender, criminal justice, and freedom of speech. (Source)

Recent Developments (Late 2025 - February 2026)

January 3, 2026: US military operation in Venezuela captured President Nicolas Maduro. Operation Absolute Resolve drew international condemnation as "dangerous and illegal" (NYT editorial board). Democratic Sen. Mark Warner asked: "Does this mean any large country can indict the ruler of a smaller adjacent country and take that person out?" Trump declared the US is "in charge" of Venezuela. (Source)
January 20, 2026: Human Rights Watch released World Report 2026, documenting "widespread human rights violations and sustained attacks on core pillars of accountable, democratic governance." (Source)
January 30, 2026: Journalist Don Lemon arrested by federal agents in Los Angeles on federal civil rights charges related to reporting on an anti-ICE church protest in Minnesota. Independent journalist Georgia Fort also arrested for covering the same protest. White House publicly celebrated the arrests. The FACE Act was repurposed to prosecute journalists for the act of reporting. (Source)
February 2026: Trump administration filed new lawsuit against Harvard University in ongoing battle over federal funding. Administration continued targeting universities with foreign funding disclosure demands. (Source)
February 12, 2026: Washington Post reported that "a little Republican rebellion against Trump only goes so far" -- three House Republicans flexed on tariff votes before retreating within 48 hours. (Source)
Ongoing: DOGE continues dismantlement activities. Social Security disability application backlogs projected to double. CISA election security activities remain paused. DOJ Voting Section reduced from approximately 30 to approximately 6 lawyers. (Source)

Historical Context

Timeline

Pre-2016: Gradual Erosion

2006: US scores 93/100 on Freedom House index -- peak score
2010: Citizens United v. FEC further deregulates campaign finance
2013: Shelby County v. Holder guts the Voting Rights Act
2016: US downgraded to "flawed democracy" by EIU (score drops below 8.0 for first time)

2017-2021: First Trump Term

2017: First Muslim ban executive orders; attacks on press as "enemy of the people" begin
2019: First impeachment over Ukraine pressure campaign
2020: Schedule F first proposed but not fully implemented before term ends
January 6, 2021: Assault on the Capitol; second impeachment
2021: Freedom House score continues decline; US at 83/100

2024-2025: Second Term and Rapid Escalation

November 2024: Trump wins presidential election
January 20, 2025: Inauguration; Schedule F revived on day one; DOGE established
February 2025: "Fork in the Road" mass resignation offer; 75,000 federal employees accept; DOGE begins accessing 15+ agencies; DEI employees placed on administrative leave
March 2025: Kilmar Abrego Garcia wrongfully deported to El Salvador despite legal protections; administration calls it "administrative error"
April 2025: Levitsky states on NPR: "We are no longer living in a democratic regime." 500+ political scientists surveyed, vast majority say US moving toward authoritarianism. April 5: First 50501 national mobilization (5.2 million)
May 2025: SCOTUS allows transgender military ban to take effect (May 6); Commander Emily Shilling coerced into separation after 20 years of naval aviation service; DOJ rescinds policy protecting reporters' phone records; Corporation for Public Broadcasting ordered to cease NPR/PBS funding
June 2025: NBC poll finds 81% of Americans say administration must follow court orders
July 2025: Washington Post analysis documents court order defiance in 1 of 3 lawsuits (57 of 165)
September 2025: Federal court blocks $2 billion Harvard funding freeze; Bright Line Watch scholar rating drops to 54/100
October 18, 2025: "No Kings" protests -- 50501 and 200+ organizations mobilize approximately 7 million people at 2,700+ locations, potentially the largest single-day protest in US history
November 2025: Democrats sweep gubernatorial elections -- Spanberger (VA), Sherrill (NJ by 14+ points); legislative majorities expanded; Schedule F final rule issued, describing post-Watergate civil service protections as "unconstitutional overcorrections"; 30 House Republicans announce retirement
December 2025: Illinois passes state Bivens Act; DOJ Civil Rights Division announces lawsuits against 4 more states over voter rolls; 250 attorneys (70%) have departed the Division; 2025 ends with 31 ICE detention deaths -- all-time high

2026: Intensification

January 2026: Levitsky/Way/Ziblatt Foreign Affairs article formally declares US competitive authoritarian; HRW World Report calls it "decided shift toward authoritarianism"; US military captures Maduro in Venezuela; Don Lemon arrested for reporting; 6 ICE detention deaths in first 21 days
February 2026: Harvard targeted again; Trump admin crackdown on journalist sources; House Republican "rebellion" collapses in 48 hours

Historical Parallels

Reconstruction/Redemption/Jim Crow (1865-1965): The most powerful parallel because it is domestic. The US operated a competitive authoritarian system across the South for nearly a century. The "Redemption" playbook used legal exclusion (poll taxes, literacy tests "framed as race-neutral"), institutional weaponization (courts that reinforced white supremacy), and paramilitary enforcement (KKK as "enforcers of white rule"). Between 1865-1876, over 2,000 Black Americans were lynched. From 1890-1908, Southern states systematically disenfranchised Black voters. Recovery required a constitutional amendment (24th), federal legislation (Voting Rights Act 1965), and sustained civil resistance over decades. Key insight from Oxford/Blavatnik analysis: "The critical question isn't whether America is 'becoming' authoritarian, but whether it ever fully ceased to be." (Source)
Hungary under Orban (2010-present): Closest international parallel. Constitutional democracy with Western institutions eroded from within through legal means. Fidesz won a legitimate supermajority in 2010 and used it to rewrite the constitution, gerrymander districts, capture 90% of media, force Central European University to relocate, and weaken judicial independence -- all through the normal legislative process. Freedom House downgraded Hungary from "free" to "partly free" in 2019. European Parliament declared Hungary "can no longer be considered a full democracy" in September 2022. Timeline from election to that declaration: approximately 12 years. Key difference from US: Hungary is a unitary state, making consolidation structurally easier.
Turkey under Erdogan (2002-present): Demonstrates the "crisis as accelerant" dynamic. Erdogan started as a democratic reformer pursuing EU accession. The 2016 failed coup attempt provided the pretext for dramatic escalation: 4,000+ judges purged (30% of the judiciary), 40,000+ dissenters arrested. In 2025, opposition leader Imamoglu arrested on "flimsy corruption charges." Timeline: approximately 20 years from democratic election to opposition leader imprisonment. Key lesson: judicial capture is often the decisive move.
Venezuela under Chavez/Maduro (1998-present): The worst-case scenario -- what happens when competitive authoritarianism is not reversed. Chavez won democratically in 1998, rewrote the constitution, and progressively tilted the playing field. When the opposition won the 2015 legislature despite rigging, Maduro simply stripped it of power rather than accept the result. That was the point of no return. Key lesson: "As the competitive authoritarian regime became less competitive electorally, it opted to become more authoritarian." Opposition fragmentation was the critical enabler.
Poland under PiS (2015-2023) and recovery under Tusk (2023-present): The most relevant recent democratic recovery case. PiS captured courts, media, and civil service over 8 years. Tusk's coalition won in 2023, but recovery has proven difficult: the new government "achieved little on institutional repair in its first year and a half" and "autocratic enclaves" obstruct restoration. Key lesson: "Democratic restoration is a long, difficult and messy process, and it is much better to prevent backsliding in the first place." (Source)

Expert & Analytical Sources

Must-Read Analyses

"The Price of American Authoritarianism" by Steven Levitsky, Lucan Way, and Daniel Ziblatt, Foreign Affairs (Jan/Feb 2026) (URL) -- The definitive scholarly verdict. Declares the US a competitive authoritarian regime, explicitly comparing it to Chavez's Venezuela, Erdogan's Turkey, Orban's Hungary, and Modi's India. Identifies the "twin dangers of complacency and fatalism" and predicts "regime instability" as the most likely medium-term outcome.
"The Path to American Authoritarianism" by Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way, Ash Center, Harvard Kennedy School (March 2025) (URL) -- The paper where the framework's creators formally applied it to the US. Documents ICE becoming "a paramilitary force," opposition characterized as "internal enemies" (Pinochet-era language), and the US transition being "faster and far-reaching" than comparable cases.
"U.S. Democratic Backsliding in Comparative Perspective" by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (August 2025) (URL) -- The most rigorous comparative analysis, examining US backsliding across three dimensions: focus (executive branch domination, civil society coercion), rapidity (unusual speed even compared to aggressive cases), and severity (not yet as institutionalized as some cases). Finds the Trump administration has "placed a greater emphasis than other leaders on subverting rather than co-opting the legislature."
"America's Drift Toward Constitutional Authoritarianism" by Foreign Policy (January 2026) (URL) -- Analyzes the 2025 National Security Strategy as "the clearest doctrinal expression yet of a deeper transformation" -- one that "elevates sovereignty above pluralism, unity above disagreement, and security above democratic restraint." Frames modern authoritarianism as advancing "through law, procedure, and administrative control."
"Authoritarianism, Reform, or Capture?" by American Affairs Journal (August 2025) (URL) -- IMPORTANT: This is a conservative-leaning source that offers the most intellectually serious counterargument. Argues that "state capture" is a more useful frame than "competitive authoritarianism," and that Levitsky/Way are engaged in "unreasonable conceptual stretching." Compares DOGE to reform movements in Estonia and Georgia. Must be engaged with honestly.
"Sliding Towards Authoritarianism?" by Human Rights Watch (January 2026) (URL) -- The global human rights organization's year-one assessment. Documents "widespread human rights violations and sustained attacks on core pillars of accountable, democratic governance." Covers immigration, health, environment, labor, disability, gender, criminal justice, and free speech.
"An Interim Docket with Long-Term Effects" by SCOTUSblog (February 2026) (URL) -- Critical analysis of how the shadow docket produces irreversible harm through temporary orders. "Even if interim docket rulings are theoretically only temporary, they can have lasting, if not permanent, consequences." Documents Venezuelan TPS deportations and Commander Shilling's coerced military separation.
"When Autocratization Is Reversed: Episodes of U-Turns Since 1900" by V-Dem Institute (Democratization journal, 2024) (URL) -- The empirical foundation for hope. 52% of all autocratization episodes reversed; 73% in the last 30 years; 90% of U-Turns led to restored or improved democracy. Identifies civil society, independent media, international pressure, and functioning elections as key recovery factors.
"Democracy After Illiberalism: A Warning from Poland" by Journal of Democracy (URL) -- The cautionary recovery case. Documents how Tusk's government has "achieved little on institutional repair in its first year and a half" despite winning the election. "Autocratic enclaves" obstruct democratic restoration. Essential for honest hope: recovery is possible but messy and incomplete.
"Democratic Recovery After Significant Backsliding: Emergent Lessons" by Carnegie Endowment Europe (April 2025) (URL) -- Synthesis of lessons from multiple recovery cases. "Even when an election puts an end to autocratization, illiberal laws often remain on the books."

Frameworks Others Have Used

Competitive Authoritarianism (Levitsky/Way, 2002): The essay's primary framework. Regimes where democratic institutions exist and opposition competes, but incumbents systematically abuse state power to tilt the playing field. Four arenas of contestation: electoral, legislative, judicial, media. 35 regimes identified in initial study; inherently unstable -- most transition to either democracy or deeper authoritarianism. (Source)
Legalistic Noncompliance (Protect Democracy): Using legal language and procedures to mask defiance of court orders. "Claiming compliance while systematically eroding constitutional checks incrementally -- cutting constitutional protections one slice at a time." This names the specific mode of US authoritarianism -- bureaucratic erosion rather than dramatic confrontation. (Source)
Stealth Authoritarianism (Ozan Varol): How Orban "slowly cuts at the fabric of democracy" using "the frameworks of the law" rather than coups. Applied to the US to describe how authoritarianism advances through institutional adaptation and bureaucratic innovation rather than dramatic ruptures.
The 3.5% Rule (Chenoweth/Stephan): Every nonviolent campaign in the dataset that achieved active participation from at least 3.5% of the population succeeded. For the US, that is approximately 11.5 million people. October 2025 protests reached approximately 7 million (2.1%) -- significant but below the threshold. (Source)
State Capture vs. Competitive Authoritarianism (American Affairs): An alternative frame arguing that what's happening in the US is better understood as "state capture" by a narrow coalition using government machinery for private benefit (e.g., Musk/DOGE targeting CFPB while planning competing financial products) rather than a systematic project to construct an authoritarian regime. This is the strongest alternative framework and should be engaged with seriously. (Source)
Constitutional Authoritarianism (Foreign Policy): The insight that modern authoritarianism "preserves elections while narrowing contestation, maintains courts while encouraging deference, and invokes democracy even as it drains it of pluralist substance." The 2025 National Security Strategy as a "theory of domestic power" that elevates security logic above democratic restraint. (Source)
Twin Dangers (Levitsky/Way/Ziblatt): Complacency ("this is just politics as usual") and Fatalism ("it's already too late") -- the two mistakes that enable authoritarian consolidation by producing identical inaction. The essay must navigate between both.

Counterargument Sources

Strongest Opposition Arguments

"Conceptual Stretching" / Framework Overuse: The American Affairs Journal article argues that Levitsky and Way are engaged in "unreasonable conceptual stretching" -- making the competitive authoritarianism concept "travel" to the US by broadening its meaning beyond what the original framework can support. The argument: the US has strong institutions, genuine partisan competition, independent courts that still function (even if defied), and free media (even if harassed) -- these are qualitatively different from Hungary's 90% captured media or Turkey's purged judiciary. The "procrustean application to American politics only works with unacceptable degrees of stretching." This is the strongest intellectual counterargument and deserves serious engagement. (Source)
Federalism as Structural Barrier: William Galston (Brookings) argues that America's decentralized political structure "serves as a buffer against executive overreach" and makes authoritarian consolidation "slower and more difficult, though not impossible." The US has 50 state governments with robust powers, constitutional limits on national government direction, and state-administered elections. Hungary and Turkey are unitary states where capturing the national government means capturing the whole system; the US is structurally different. Counter-counterargument: James Gardner (SSRN/Oxford) finds that "the most likely outcome of central democratic backsliding appears to be some kind of competitive authoritarianism regardless of whether the state is federal or unitary." (Source)
Institutional Density (Larry Diamond): The US has "a thick layer of autonomous capacity to organize and mobilize in the face of abuse, illegality, and incipient tyranny" -- independent organizations, media, think tanks, universities, businesses -- more than any previous country that experienced competitive authoritarianism. Liberal democracy has survived in wealthy capitalist economies because of this density. Counter-caveat: Diamond himself acknowledges this capacity "has been badly strained by intense political polarization and declining trust."
The 2026 Midterm Window: Trump approval at 36-37%, generic ballot favoring Democrats by 3-14 points, 30 House Republicans retiring (near the 2018 record of 34), Democrats at approximately 69% odds of winning the House. Competitive authoritarianism usually requires more than one term to consolidate, and if Democrats win the House in November 2026, they gain subpoena power, budget authority, and the ability to block further consolidation. The November 2025 sweep (Spanberger, Sherrill) demonstrates the electoral mechanism still works.
Democratic U-Turn Data: V-Dem data shows 73% of recent autocratization episodes reversed. 90% of U-Turns led to restored or improved democracy. The US has several factors associated with successful U-Turns: massive civil society mobilization, independent media that still functions, state-level democratic governance, and electoral mechanisms that remain operational.
The Wealth Factor: Levitsky himself has noted the US is "by far the wealthiest country to face a serious threat of democratic breakdown," which historically correlates with democratic resilience. Wealthy democracies have more institutional redundancy and more resources for resistance.
Declining Nonviolent Success Rates Are Not Decisive: While Chenoweth documents a decline in nonviolent campaign success (from 65% in the 1990s to below 34% since 2010), this primarily reflects autocrats getting better at suppression -- but the 3.5% threshold finding still holds. The US movement may face a more sophisticated adversary, but the scale of mobilization is also unprecedented.

Credible Opposition Voices

American Affairs Journal: Conservative-leaning intellectual journal that reframes the issue as "state capture" rather than authoritarian consolidation, comparing DOGE to reform movements in Estonia and Georgia. Argues the competitive authoritarianism label is analytically unhelpful for the US case. (Source)
William Galston (Brookings): Distinguished political scientist who distinguishes between direction and proximity -- acknowledges the direction of travel is toward authoritarianism but argues the US is further from the destination than alarmists suggest, primarily because of federalism.
Larry Diamond (Stanford/Hoover): Makes the institutional density argument while acknowledging strain. Represents the "cautious optimism grounded in structural analysis" position.
Dissenting Bright Line Watch scholars: Not all 500+ scholars agreed on severity. A minority argued the framework was being applied too loosely. Their specific objections deserve acknowledgment even if the majority view is more persuasive.

Human Impact & Storytelling

Case Studies & Examples

Commander Emily Shilling: Naval aviator of nearly two decades, 60 combat missions, $20 million in Navy training investment. On May 6, 2025, the Supreme Court allowed the transgender military ban to take effect -- without explanation, over three dissents. Shilling was "coerced into voluntary separation" to secure partial retirement benefits. The 9th Circuit hasn't ruled on the merits; trial isn't until November 2026. By then, her career is over. This is competitive authoritarianism operating through the courts: irreversible harm delivered through "interim" orders. (Source)
Kilmar Abrego Garcia: Salvadoran man who came to the US at 16 fleeing gang violence. Immigration judge granted him protection in 2019 because of the danger he'd face if returned. He lived in Maryland with his American citizen wife and children, complying with ICE check-ins. On March 15, 2025, he was wrongfully deported to El Salvador -- sent to the exact danger the courts had ruled he must be protected from. Administration called it "an administrative error." The Supreme Court unanimously ordered his return. He was eventually returned on June 6 -- and then indicted on federal charges. (Source)
Former CDC Analyst (DOGE impact): A CDC analyst terminated in mass layoffs fell behind on bills, including approximately $57,000 in hospital costs. She relied on food stamps for groceries, sought state assistance for utilities, and a relative helped cover her mortgage to prevent losing her home. She is one of 242,000 people who left the federal payroll in 2025. (Source)
Don Lemon & Georgia Fort (journalist arrests): Don Lemon arrested by federal agents in Los Angeles on January 30, 2026, charged with federal civil rights crimes for reporting on an anti-ICE church protest. Georgia Fort arrested for covering the same event. Fort: "I don't feel like I have my First Amendment right as a member of the press because now the federal agents are at my door arresting me for filming the church protest." The White House publicly celebrated the arrests. AG Bondi announced them; the White House amplified within an hour. The FACE Act -- designed to protect access to reproductive health clinics -- was repurposed to prosecute journalists. (Source)
Veterans and Social Security Recipients: DOGE's disruption of the Social Security Administration -- canceling a $1 billion contract with Leidos, pushing out thousands of workers who process checks -- threatens delays for millions of beneficiaries. The disability application backlog is projected to more than double. At the VA, 585 contracts were canceled (later reduced to 447). Former SSA acting chief of staff expressed "serious concern that SSA programs would continue to function." (Source)
ICE Detention Deaths: 31 people died in ICE custody in 2025. Conditions include "poor quality food, extreme temperatures, permanent lighting, and limited access to clean water." People reported being denied insulin and disability accommodations, blocked from seeing lawyers, and forced to use bathrooms with sewage bubbling up from drains. On October 3, 2025, ICE halted payments to contractors providing medical care. 95% of a sample of ICE custody deaths were preventable or possibly preventable with appropriate medical care. (Source)
The AP Barred from the White House: The Associated Press -- the foundational American news wire service, established in 1846 -- was barred from covering White House events because it refused to adopt the administration's preferred name for a body of water. The vacated press positions were filled by pro-Trump outlets and political "influencers." This is the competitive authoritarian media playbook: not censorship, but access rationed as a reward for compliance.

Vivid Details

The administration's Schedule F rule describes the post-Watergate civil service protections -- the ones Congress enacted specifically to prevent the kind of political interference Nixon engaged in -- as "unconstitutional overcorrections." The rule characterizes Nixon-era abuses as having been over-corrected, and argues that the correction itself needs to be undone.
A Minnesota judge documented 96 ICE court order violations in 74 cases in a single month -- and noted the actual extent of noncompliance was "almost certainly substantially understated."
The SCOTUS shadow docket decided the fate of hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan TPS holders through interim orders with no written explanation. Those deported under these orders cannot be un-deported even if the final ruling goes against the administration. The damage is permanent; the order was temporary.
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson wrote in dissent that the Court had "cleared a path for the Executive to choose law-free action at this perilous moment for our Constitution."
Orban's Hungary: by 2017, Fidesz or Fidesz allies owned over 90% of Hungarian media. The lone remaining independent radio station, Klubradio, lost its broadcasting license in 2021. Central European University was forced to relocate from Budapest to Vienna.
The 50501 movement grew from 72,000 people in February 2025 to approximately 7 million by October -- a nearly 100x increase in eight months.
Two-thirds of Americans fear a constitutional crisis between the administration and the courts. Yet 81% say the administration must follow court orders. The gap between what the public demands and what the government does is itself a measure of democratic erosion.
The phrase "Redemption" -- the name Southern political leaders gave to their project of overturning Reconstruction -- was rebranding. They called the reimposition of white supremacy a "redemption." The tools they used (poll taxes, literacy tests) were "framed as race-neutral" while creating "disproportionate voting barriers through bureaucratic discretion." The system worked for nearly a century within the formal structures of American democracy.

Visual & B-Roll Research

Data Visualizations to Create

Democracy Score Cliff Chart: Century Foundation Democracy Meter score dropping from 79 to 57 in a single year. Simple line chart, with the 2024-2025 period highlighted. Could overlay with Freedom House long-term decline (93 to 83 over 13 years) to show the acceleration. Source for data: Century Foundation and Freedom House reports.
The Playbook Comparison Table: A side-by-side table showing playbook moves (media capture, judicial manipulation, civil service politicization, electoral manipulation, civil society suppression) across Hungary, Turkey, Venezuela, and the US, with specific data points in each cell. This is the visual that does the most argumentative work -- pattern recognition at a glance.
Court Order Defiance Rate: Bar chart or infographic showing 57 of 165 lawsuits defied. Could break down by method (outright defiance, technical compliance with substantive defiance, delay, false information, working around orders).
Federal Workforce Reduction: Before/after graphic showing 242,000 net reduction. Could break down by agency (USAID, CFPB, VOA, etc.) with specific numbers.
SCOTUS Shadow Docket Tilt: Pie chart or bar chart showing 84% administration win rate on emergency docket, 90% when administration was applicant. Compare to prior term's 23% grant rate.
50501 Movement Growth: Line chart showing escalation from 72,000 (Feb 2025) to 5.2 million (April) to 7 million (October). Overlay with Chenoweth's 3.5% threshold line (11.5 million) to show how far the movement has come and how far it still needs to go.
Press Freedom Rankings: US ranked 57th globally. Could visualize as a bar chart comparing US to peer democracies (Canada, UK, Germany, France, etc.) to show where the US has fallen relative to countries it used to lead.
V-Dem U-Turn Data: Pie chart or graphic showing 73% of recent autocratization episodes reversed. 90% of recoveries restore full democracy. This is the visual that anchors the hope narrative.
ICE Detention Deaths: Bar chart showing 2024 (11 deaths) vs. 2025 (31 deaths) -- nearly tripled. Could extend to show 2026 pace if current rate holds.
Timeline Comparison: Side-by-side timelines of Orban Year 1, Erdogan Year 1, and Trump Term 2 Year 1, showing parallel moves at each stage. The visual punchline: the US is moving faster.

Footage & Clips to Source

Congressional Hearings: Clips of congressional oversight failures -- moments where Republican committee chairs deflected or refused to investigate. Contrast with historical clips of bipartisan oversight (Watergate hearings, Iran-Contra).
50501 / No Kings Protests: Aerial footage of mass mobilizations, especially the October 18, 2025, protests. Footage from 2,700+ locations would emphasize nationwide scale. State capitol-focused footage highlights the tactical use of federalism.
Court Order Defiance Moments: News coverage of specific defiance incidents -- ICE ignoring court orders, the OMB "rescinding the memo but keeping the freeze" moment, the Minnesota judge's ruling documenting 96 violations.
DOGE/Schedule F: News footage of federal workers being walked out of buildings, office closures. Human interest interviews with fired workers. Contrast with footage of Elon Musk announcing DOGE actions.
Don Lemon Arrest: Footage of the arrest, the White House celebration, AG Bondi's announcement. This is a visceral press freedom moment.
Commander Shilling: Any available footage of Shilling in uniform, in the cockpit, or discussing her service. The visual of a decorated naval aviator being forced out carries enormous emotional weight.
Kilmar Abrego Garcia: Family footage, news coverage of the deportation and eventual return, the Supreme Court unanimous ruling.
Hungary Footage: Orban's speeches declaring the "illiberal state," footage of the closed Klubradio station, the empty Budapest campus of Central European University. Before/after visuals of Hungarian media landscape.
Turkey Footage: Post-2016 coup purge imagery -- judges being removed, mass arrests, Erdogan's consolidation speeches. Imamoglu's recent arrest footage.
Venezuela Footage: Maduro's stripping of the 2015 legislature, protest crackdowns, and the January 2026 US military operation. The progression from democracy to dictatorship visualized.
Reconstruction/Redemption: Historical imagery of Black voters during Reconstruction, KKK paramilitary activity, poll tax receipt images, "separate but equal" signage, civil rights era protests. The visual parallel between Jim Crow-era voter suppression and modern voter roll purges.
Trump Anti-Press Rhetoric: Compilation of the 215 anti-media social media posts (Freedom of the Press Foundation data), "enemy of the people" rally moments, the "Hall of Shame" website.
November 2025 Elections: Victory speeches from Spanberger and Sherrill. Footage of voters at polling places. The visual message: elections still work.

Graphics & Diagrams

The Four Arenas of Competitive Authoritarianism: A diagram showing Levitsky/Way's four arenas (Electoral, Legislative, Judicial, Media) with the specific US erosion indicators in each arena. This becomes the essay's structural framework made visual.
The Playbook Sequence Flowchart: A flowchart showing the typical sequence of competitive authoritarian moves: (1) Win election -> (2) Attack media -> (3) Politicize civil service -> (4) Intimidate judiciary -> (5) Manipulate electoral rules -> (6) Suppress civil society -> (7) Tilt the next election. Show where the US currently is on the flowchart.
The Enforcement Gap Diagram: A flowchart showing how court orders are supposed to be enforced (Judge issues order -> US Marshals execute -> Federal prosecutors pursue contempt) and where the gap exists (all enforcement actors are under executive branch control). This explains why court order defiance can happen without visible crisis.
Complacency vs. Fatalism Diagram: A visual representing Levitsky/Way/Ziblatt's "twin dangers" -- showing how both complacency ("it's just politics") and fatalism ("it's too late") produce the same result: inaction that enables consolidation.
Federal vs. Unitary State Comparison: A diagram comparing the US federal structure (50 state governments, 15 Democratic trifectas, state-administered elections) to Hungary's unitary structure (single national government controls everything). Visual explanation of why the US playbook is harder to complete.
The 3.5% Threshold Graphic: A simple visualization showing the US population, the 3.5% threshold (11.5 million), and the October 2025 mobilization (7 million / 2.1%). Show the gap and the trajectory.

Iconic/Archival Imagery

The Empty CEU Campus in Budapest: Central European University, forced to relocate from Budapest to Vienna by Orban. The empty building is a visual symbol of what "civil society suppression" looks like in practice.
The Klubradio Silence: Hungary's last independent radio station going off air in 2021. The moment the dial goes silent.
Reconstruction-era Voting Images: Historical photographs of Black Americans voting for the first time during Reconstruction -- and then the visual transition to Jim Crow-era voter suppression imagery.
The January 6 Assault and the Pardons: Before (the insurrection) and after (the 1,500 pardons) juxtaposed.
AP Reporters Excluded from White House: The empty seats in the White House press room where AP reporters used to sit.
The "Fork in the Road" Email: Visualization of the mass resignation offer that 75,000 federal employees accepted.
George W. Bush Quote: "We'll abide by the Court's decision. That doesn't mean I have to agree with it." The visual contrast between historical norms and current defiance.

Source Inventory

Primary Sources

Levitsky, Steven and Lucan A. Way. "Elections Without Democracy: The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism." Journal of Democracy, April 2002. (URL)
Levitsky, Steven and Lucan A. Way. "The Path to American Authoritarianism." Ash Center, Harvard Kennedy School, March 2025. (URL)
Levitsky, Steven, Lucan Way, and Daniel Ziblatt. "The Price of American Authoritarianism." Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2026. (URL)
V-Dem Institute. "When Autocratization Is Reversed: Episodes of U-Turns Since 1900." Democratization, 2024. (URL)
V-Dem Institute. "U-Turns: The Hope for Democratic Resilience." Policy Brief. (URL)
V-Dem Democracy Report 2024. (URL)
Supreme Court of the United States. Noem v. Abrego Garcia, 24A949 (April 10, 2025). (URL)
Bright Line Watch. Expert and public surveys, 2025. (URL)

News & Journalism

Washington Post. "Trump accused of defying about a third of major court orders since taking office." July 21, 2025. (URL)
Washington Post. "In Congress, a little Republican rebellion against Trump only goes so far." February 12, 2026. (URL)
Bloomberg Law. "Trump Reigns Supreme in High Court Emergency Docket Decisions." (URL)
NPR. "Hundreds of scholars say U.S. is swiftly heading toward authoritarianism." April 22, 2025. (URL)
NPR. "Journalist Don Lemon arrested over Minnesota church protest." January 30, 2026. (URL)
NPR. "After backsliding, democracy often comes back weaker and more fragile." January 31, 2026. (URL)
NPR. "More than 10% of Congress won't return to their seats after 2026." December 17, 2025. (URL)
CNN. "New careers, relocations and medical problems: How ex-federal workers' lives have been upended since DOGE." February 14, 2026. (URL)
CNN. "Is Trump's grip on the GOP weakening? These eight Republicans tested him in 2025." December 22, 2025. (URL)
CBS News. "Democrats sweep key races in 2025 elections." November 2025. (URL)
NBC News. "Members of Congress are fleeing the job at a historically high rate." 2026. (URL)
Axios. "ICE custody deaths reach highest peak in two decades under Trump enforcement push." January 20, 2026. (URL)
Axios. "Trump admin crackdown on journalists' sources 'chilling.'" February 6, 2026. (URL)
Kansas Reflector. "In arresting and prosecuting journalists, Trump administration draws from authoritarian playbook." February 12, 2026. (URL)
TIME. "U.S. Has Seen 'Shift Toward Authoritarianism', Rights Group Claims." 2026. (URL)
The Nation. "The Republican Crack-Up Has Begun." (URL)
Common Dreams. "'No Kings' Rallies Against Trump Authoritarianism." 2025. (URL)
Federal News Network. "How staffing cuts in 2025 transformed the federal workforce." January 2026. (URL)

Analysis & Commentary

Carnegie Endowment. "U.S. Democratic Backsliding in Comparative Perspective." August 2025. (URL)
Carnegie Endowment. "Democratic Recovery After Significant Backsliding: Emergent Lessons." April 2025. (URL)
Carnegie Endowment. "The New Democracy Defenders." November 2025. (URL)
Foreign Policy. "America's Drift Toward Constitutional Authoritarianism." January 19, 2026. (URL)
American Affairs Journal. "Authoritarianism, Reform, or Capture?" August 2025. (URL)
Brennan Center for Justice. "The Trump Administration's Campaign to Undermine the Next Election." (URL)
Brennan Center for Justice. "What Courts Can Do If the Trump Administration Defies Court Orders." (URL)
Brennan Center for Justice. "International Lessons on Democratic Backsliding and Recovery." (URL)
Protect Democracy. "The Trump Administration's Conflict with the Courts, Explained." (URL)
SCOTUSblog. "An interim docket with long-term effects." February 2026. (URL)
SCOTUSblog. "Introducing the Interim Relief Docket Stat Pack." January 2026. (URL)
Democracy Forward. "The People's Guide to the U.S. Supreme Court: 2025-2026." (URL)
Center for American Progress. "Poland's Democratic Resurgence: From Backsliding to Beacon." (URL)
Center for American Progress. "How Peaceful Protest by Just 3.5 Percent of Americans Could Force Major Policy Changes." (URL)
Center for American Progress. "A Green Light for Authoritarianism: How the Trump Administration Fuels Global Autocracy." (URL)
AEI. "Competitive Authoritarianism Comes for Civil Society." (URL)
Human Rights Watch. "Sliding Towards Authoritarianism?" January 20, 2026. (URL)
Human Rights Watch. "World Report 2026: United States." (URL)
Oxford/Blavatnik School. "Lessons on American authoritarianism: What the Reconstruction and Jim Crow eras warn." 2025. (URL)
Oxford Academic/Publius. "State of American Federalism 2024-2025." (URL)
Brookings. "The war over federalism." (URL)
Brookings. "How many people can the federal government lose before it crashes?" (URL)
State Court Report. "Federalism and State Constitutional Rights in 2026." (URL)
Journal of Democracy. "Democracy After Illiberalism: A Warning from Poland." (URL)
LSE European Politics Blog. "Brian Klaas: Is the United States still a democracy?" September 2025. (URL)
ECPS. "Galston: US Federalism Slows the Shift Toward Competitive Authoritarianism." (URL)
ECPS. "Trump 2025: Dystopia and Fascism." (URL)
Poynter. "The numbers that defined the Trump administration's attacks against the press in 2025." (URL)
Free Press. "Chokehold: Donald Trump's War on Free Speech." (URL)
Democracy Docket. "These Are The Trump Power Grabs We're Watching in the New Year." (URL)
The Nation. "How to Save a Democracy." (URL)
NILC. "Trump's Authoritarian Playbook." (URL)
Democratic Erosion Project. Multiple analyses on Hungary, Turkey, and US democratic erosion. (URL)
Harvard Magazine. "The Harvard Professor Who Quantified Democracy." July 2025. (URL)
Museum of Protest. "How 50501 Used State Capitols as Protest Stages." (URL)
50501 Movement. "As 2026 Begins: A Data-Led Look Back at 2025." (URL)

Data & Statistics

Century Foundation. "Democracy Meter." January 2026. (URL)
Freedom House. "Freedom in the World 2025: United States." (URL)
RSF. World Press Freedom Index 2025. (URL)
RSF. "One Year Into Trump's Second Term." January 2026. (URL)
EIU. Democracy Index 2024. (URL)
Bright Line Watch. Expert and public surveys, 2025. (URL)
Nate Silver / Silver Bulletin. Trump approval rating tracker. (URL)
Morning Consult. 2026 Midterm Generic Ballot Tracker. (URL)
Pew Research Center. "Confidence in Trump Dips in 2026." January 2026. (URL)
Pew Research Center. "Dissatisfaction With Democracy." 2025-2026. (URL)
POGO. "ICE Inspections Plummeted as Detentions Soared in 2025." (URL)
Detention Watch Network. "4 ICE detention deaths in just 10 days into the New Year." (URL)
CBPP. "Trump Administration Pursues Deep DOGE-Driven Cuts to Veteran Service Providers." (URL)
EPI. "What is DOGE doing to Social Security?" (URL)
Newsweek. DOGE Federal Government Layoffs Tracker. (URL)
Fox News. Generic ballot poll: Democrats 52%, Republicans 46%. (URL)
Lambda Legal. Shilling v. United States case page. (URL)

Opposition/Counterargument Sources

American Affairs Journal. "Authoritarianism, Reform, or Capture?" August 2025. (URL)
ECPS/Galston. "US Federalism Slows the Shift." (URL)
SSRN/Oxford/Gardner. "Can Federalism Protect Subnational Liberal Democracy from Central Authoritarianism?" (URL)
Journal of Democracy. "Democracy After Illiberalism" (Poland's cautionary recovery). (URL)
Dartmouth/Bright Line Watch. "U.S. Democracy Rankings Remain Stable But With a Red Flag." October 2025. (URL)

Research Gaps

Levitsky/Way 2025 Ash Center paper full text: The complete PDF has encoding issues. The paper likely contains the most detailed mapping of the competitive authoritarian playbook to US specifics. Manual retrieval and review would significantly strengthen the evidence base.
Foreign Affairs Jan/Feb 2026 full text: Paywalled. Key quotes have been found in secondary sources, but the full argument with detailed international comparisons would be valuable.
Specific V-Dem scoring for the US: The V-Dem Institute's electoral democracy and liberal democracy index scores for the US in 2025-2026 would add a fourth independent quantitative measure alongside Century Foundation, Freedom House, and EIU. The V-Dem website has the data but specific US scores were not surfaced in research.
Republican internal dissent granularity: The research found that 30 House Republicans are retiring and that some have briefly tested Trump (on tariffs, redistricting) before retreating. But a precise count of how many Republican members of Congress have publicly criticized specific authoritarian moves (court order defiance, journalist arrests, DOGE overreach) would help assess the "elite defection" factor. The Washington Post's February 12, 2026, report that Republican rebellion "only goes so far" suggests elite defection remains minimal.
50501 sustained participation data: Organizer-reported peak numbers (7 million on October 18) are available, but independent verification of nationwide protest attendance is inherently difficult. More importantly, sustained participation rates between major events -- not just peak mobilization days -- would better assess whether the 3.5% threshold is being approached in a sustained rather than episodic way. The 50501 organization's own 2026 retrospective acknowledges: "2025 proved capacity. 2026 needs to prove consistency."
Detailed comparison of US speed to comparator countries: Levitsky/Way state the US moved "faster" than Hungary or Turkey in year one, but the source materials don't provide a detailed side-by-side timeline breakdown at the month-by-month level. A precise comparison (e.g., "Orban didn't target media until month 6; Trump barred the AP in month 1") would strengthen the speed argument visually.
Economic impacts of DOGE/authoritarian governance on ordinary citizens: The CNN February 14, 2026, story provides individual stories, but broader economic impact data (GDP effects, service delivery delays affecting specific populations, Social Security processing times) would make the human impact section stronger.
International reaction to US democratic backsliding: The research covers domestic responses but has limited data on how US allies are responding. The Center for American Progress "Green Light for Authoritarianism" piece addresses global autocracy implications, but specific diplomatic or institutional responses from EU, NATO, G7 partners would add context.
The Venezuela operation's domestic framing: The January 2026 military operation against Venezuela was justified through security and anti-narcotics framing, but its implications for executive power, congressional war authority, and the "security above democratic restraint" logic identified by Foreign Policy deserve deeper analysis. Did Congress authorize this? How does it relate to the competitive authoritarian framework's emphasis on executive overreach?
Charlie Kirk assassination and political violence data: The Bright Line Watch survey references expert confidence in preventing political violence dropping from 52% to 29% after the Charlie Kirk assassination. The details and circumstances of this event, and its implications for the political violence dimension of democratic erosion, are not covered in the source materials.

The Playbook: How Democracies Die on Paper

Research