For the Republic
← Command Center / 🎙 Episode / 2026-02-12 · ~13 minutes (estimated from ~1,920 word count)

The Invisible Army Goes AWOL

Draft Complete — Pending Host Review

Source Material

1/10
01-morris-low-info-voters.md, 02-pew-confidence-dips.md, 03-brookings-midterm-prospects.md, 04-cnn-less-engaged-voters.md, 05-economic-impact-health-costs.md, _topic.md

The less voters knew, the more they liked Trump in 2024. Not Anymore

Source: Strength In Numbers (G. Elliott Morris) Author: G. Elliott Morris Date: February 12, 2026 URL: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-lost-low-info-voters

Key Findings

Morris reports a significant reversal in low-knowledge voter support for Trump. In 2024, voters with minimal political engagement favored Trump by 20 points (60% to 40%). By January 2026, his approval among this group had collapsed to 43%, with disapproval exceeding 55%.

The data reveals a 25-point swing against the president among low-knowledge voters — approximately double the shift among highly informed citizens.

Methodology

Morris defines "low-knowledge" voters as those unable to correctly identify which party controls both chambers of Congress (roughly 25% of 2024 voters). "High-knowledge" respondents answered both questions correctly (about 75%). The analysis draws from Strength In Numbers/Verasight polling conducted in January 2026.

Why Low-Knowledge Voters Are Abandoning Trump

Economic Pain Points: Low-knowledge respondents disapprove of Trump's handling of prices by 40 points, compared to -30 among high-knowledge adults. This 10-point gap is statistically significant. These voters, typically lower-income, spend proportionally more on essentials and feel tariff and labor shortage impacts acutely.

Opinion Elasticity: High-knowledge voters hold "strong" positions (74% have firmly formed views). Low-knowledge voters show softer opinions — just 58% hold strong convictions — making them more responsive to changing conditions.

Health Care Pressures: 19% of low-knowledge respondents report losing coverage or facing premium increases since ACA subsidies expired, versus 11% among high-knowledge adults.

Electoral Implications

Morris concludes: Republicans struggle with both informed and uninformed voters. "If Republicans aren't winning high-knowledge respondents because of negative coverage, and they aren't winning low-knowledge respondents because of conditions... then they're not winning elections."

Low-knowledge voters backed Trump by a net margin of 11 points in 2024. Now, the same low-knowledge voters say they disapprove of the president by 13 points — a 25-point shift away from the president.